THE TIME-COST ANALYSIS OF THE CONSTRUCTION PROJECT, TAKING INTO ACCOUNT RISK BASED ON EXPERT KNOWLEDGE USING FUZZY SETS

misbe2011 Tracking Number 188

Main goal for presented analyze is the detailed review of risks, connected with relevant project, before the “go” decision is made, at the pre-feasibility stage. Project cost and time deviations (for relevant tasks) were established for the schedule and cost estimation with use of the fuzzy set theory and experts knowledge. Set of information – based on experts knowledge was transformed with use of the fuzzy sets theory. Elements of the model are: fuzzyfication block (for fuzzyfication of data), inference block (for making conclusions) and de-fuzzyfication block (for sharpness of results). Model allows for automatic creation of different scenarios for the project (with use of non complicated math, like average value or mass extentricity) – pessimistic and optimistic scenarios for the investment, both from cost and time points of view. Authors present final results – value of risk, connected with time and costs of the project, which are function of standard deviation and probability of the risk appearance. Assessment of the risk for the whole investment is the aggregate results calculated for the particular tasks of the investment. Model allows for comparison of – for example - different technologies and choice of the optimal variant.